Hurricane VANCE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE STILL A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 110.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST.  VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...VANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1000 PM PST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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