Tropical Storm SIMON

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

...SIMON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 117.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND SIMON
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  STARTING
LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON
OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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