Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with
Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop
due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear.  Based on
these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical
remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased
further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global
model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open
trough by Friday.  The official intensity forecast is close to the
previous forecast and the GFS model.

During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated
with Rachel has taken on a southward drift.  A slow southwestward
motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move
around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge.  The track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly
between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

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