Tropical Storm POLO

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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