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Hurricane ODILE


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 108.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ODILE IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN
BEFORE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 922 MB...27.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN
JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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