Hurricane ODILE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD...
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES...
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO MULEGE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. ODILE IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ODILE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE
OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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