Hurricane ODILE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ODILE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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