Hurricane ODILE

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HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Microwave satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane
Odile is displaced southwest of the conventional fixes, placing the
center just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur
north of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave data,
so the intensity is being lowered slowly since much of the low-level
circulation is still over water on both sides of the Baja peninsula.

The initial motion is northwestward or 325/12 kt, based mainly on
microwave satellite positions. Odile is expected to move slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours,
essentially remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As
Odile rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge located over
northern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern
Gulf of California as a severely weakened and shallow low pressure
system on Day 3, and is expected to move inland over northwestern
Mexico as a remnant low on Day 4. The NHC track forecast is just an
update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the
consensus model TVCE.

Due to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are
forecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours, and the
official intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model.
However, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not
weaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind
speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can
often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In
some elevated locations, the winds can be even greater.

Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the
center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
Also, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the
Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation
northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States
during the next few days. These factors, in combination with
Odile's eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy
rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please
see information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 24.7N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1200Z 27.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0000Z 28.6N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1200Z 29.6N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z 30.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  19/1200Z 31.0N 112.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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