Hurricane MARIE

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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Marie's eye has completely filled in and disappeared in infrared
satellite imagery while convective tops continue to warm.  Dvorak
numbers are slowly decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered
to 80 kt on this advisory.  Marie is now moving over SSTs near 25C,
and the hurricane will be over water as cold as 22C in about 48
hours.  Therefore, a gradual spin-down of the circulation is
expected during the next couple of days, and the cold water is
likely to cause Marie to lose its deep convection and become
post-tropical by late Thursday.  The updated NHC intensity forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and closely follows the
intensity consensus.

The hurricane has continued to turn a little to the left, and the
initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  An unseasonably strong
mid-tropospheric high is forecast to develop along the southern
California/northern Baja coast during the next day or two, and this
feature should cause Marie to turn toward the north-northwest by
day 3.  Once Marie becomes a remnant low, lower-level ridging to the
north of the cyclone will cause it to slow down and turn westward
by the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly
clustered, especially through 72 hours, and no significant changes
were required to the official track forecast.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and have reached the southern California
coast.  These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days
and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as
minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 21.6N 121.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.4N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 23.6N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 26.5N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/0000Z 29.5N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  31/0000Z 30.0N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 29.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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