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Hurricane MARIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Infrared satellite does not suggest much has changed with Marie
during the day, with the cyclone still displaying a small cloud-
filled eye.  Microwave data do show that the inner eyewall has
become closed again, so it appears the recent weakening trend has
halted.  Satellite estimates are mostly unchanged from 6 hours ago,
so the initial wind speed will stay 85 kt.  Although the inner core
structure appears to have improved, Marie is moving quickly across
much cooler waters, which should cause the hurricane to weaken
soon.  Guidance shows a slower decay than the last cycle, which is
hard to believe given that Marie will be moving over waters cooler
than 24C in 24 hours and will probably lose all convection within 48
hours.  Thus the new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the last
one, but now lies on the lower side of the guidance envelope.

The initial motion has shifted a bit leftward--295/13 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue steering Marie on a
west-northwest to northwest track for the next couple of days.
The hurricane is expected to slow and turn toward the north-
northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of the
ridge, but then drift westward as the low-level ridge rebuilds to
the northwest of Marie or its remnants.  The official forecast is
only slightly modified to the west at long range to account for the
latest guidance.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula, and are now reaching the southern California
coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days,
and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as
minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 21.1N 120.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.9N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 23.1N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 24.3N 127.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  29/1800Z 28.9N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  30/1800Z 30.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 30.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Oct-2014 12:10:00 UTC