ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed significantly during the last several hours. The cyclone has a large circulation, with its associated wind field extending several hundred miles across. Curved banding is mainly confined to the western half of the system due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The latest Dvorak classifications continue to support an initial wind speed estimate of 30 kt. Some strengthening is likely during the next few days while the cyclone remains over warm water, within a moist air mass, and in an environment of moderate shear. The system is expected to move over cooler water and into a more stable atmosphere by the end of the week, and that should cause the cyclone to lose strength. The weakening process over cold water could be slower than normal as large cyclones like this one typically take longer to spin down. The depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to shift eastward and weaken while a trough deepens over California. This pattern change should cause the tropical cyclone to make a gradual turn toward the north during the next 2 to 3 days. Beyond that time, a slight left turn is predicted as the trough lifts out. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left and slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. It is worth noting that while the official forecast is well offshore of the southwestern United States, model guidance does show a surge of moisture partly associated with this system extending into that region late Wednesday and Thursday. Please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details on a possible heavy rain threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.4N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 17.0N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 17.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 18.4N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 19.7N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.2N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:43 UTC