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Tropical Depression KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing
Karina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues
in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from
the ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30
kt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system
heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air
should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.
Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation
of the much larger Marie in about 36 hours.  The intensity forecast
is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and
is the same as that from the previous advisory.

The visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is
moving toward the east at 5 kt.  This motion is somewhat unexpected
as all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast
heading today.  The cyclone will be advected around the large
circulation of Marie until Karina is absorbed.  The track forecast,
based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the
previous advisory, is north of the previous official prediction
because of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 17.2N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Oct-2014 12:09:54 UTC