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Tropical Storm KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

A small area of convection has developed just to the southwest
of the center, probably a product of the diurnal maximum cycle.
However, the deep convection that was earlier displaced well to the
west-northwest has dissipated.  Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates continue to decrease and a blend of the T- and CI-numbers
suggest an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Moderate east-southeasterly
vertical shear produced by Marie's large upper-level anticyclone to
the east, is expected to further weaken Karina.  Consequently, the
cyclone should continue to spin down and become a post-tropical
remnant low within the next 24 hours.  The intensity forecast
corresponds with the large-scale models and the SHIPS/LGEM
statistical-dynamical guidance with dissipation or absorption
forecast in 2-3 days.

Shortwave-infrared satellite images show that the best estimate of
initial motion is 110/9, and this general motion around the western
to southwestern periphery of Marie is expected through the entire
period before dissipation.  The official NHC forecast track is
an update of the previous package and is based on a compromise of
the GFEX and TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 17.2N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 17.1N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Nov-2014 12:09:57 UTC