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Tropical Storm KARINA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Karina's cloud pattern continues to rapidly degrade, with the
remaining deep convection located about 90 miles west-northwest
of the exposed center of circulation.  The initial intensity is
lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates and an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU-A
intensity estimation.  Moderate southeasterly vertical shear, as a
result of Marie's large upper-level anticyclone, should result in
continued weakening to a depression in 12 hours.  The cyclone is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and
ultimately dissipate or become absorbed by major hurricane Marie in
3 days or less, as indicated by the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be 095/8, within the
diminishing low- to mid westerly flow produced by post-tropical
cyclone Lowell to the north. Karina should turn toward the
east-southeast around the 24 hour period as the cyclone is steered
around the southwest periphery of approaching Hurricane Marie.  The
official NHC forecast track is nudged southward beyond the 24 hour
period, following the trend in the GFEX and the TVCE guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 17.5N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 17.4N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 17.2N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 15.9N 125.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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