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Hurricane KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery
has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours.  The
hurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to
restrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the
circulation.  Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a
decrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been
lowered to 65 kt.  No significant changes were made to the intensity
forecast.  Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days,
particularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over
the 25 deg SST isotherm.  The dynamical models are in good agreement
that only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours.

Karina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and
this general motion should continue for the next day or two while
the cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly
flow to the south of Lowell.  After 48 hours, the spread in the
track guidance remains large.  Most of the dynamical models have
converged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move
close enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward
before being absorbed or sheared.  However, the extent and timing of
this interaction remains highly uncertain.  Since the track
guidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over
the last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been
conservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3
and 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 17.8N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 18.2N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 18.3N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Oct-2014 12:09:43 UTC