Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped
near Karina's center, and convective banding features have improved
during the past 6 hours now that the cyclone is moving over a ridge
of warmer sea surface temperatures. The result is that intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to a consensus
T3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt.

Karina is moving slowly westward or 275/04 kt. There remains no
significant change to the previous reasoning. Karina is forecast to
stall and/or make a small loop in 24 to 48 hours when steering
currents are forecast to weaken considerably. By 72 hours and
beyond, the cyclone is expected to come under the influence of
southwesterly steering flow generated by the very large circulation
of Tropical Storm Lowell, which is currently located well to the
east of Karina. The NHC model guidance is actually in very good
agreement on the development of this rather complex synoptic flow
pattern and eventual interaction between the two tropical cyclones.
The only significant difference since the previous advisory is that
the model guidance envelope has shifted well to the east. The
official forecast track follows suit and has been shifted slightly
to the east, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCE
due to the uncertainty in which direction Karina will move after the
cyclone stalls and/or completes a looping motion.

The outflow from Tropical Storm Lowell is expected to affect
Karina within the next 12 hours, producing modest easterly to
southeasterly vertical wind shear across the cyclone through 72
hours. The result is that little change in intensity is forecast,
although there will likely be some small fluctuations in the
intensity during that time. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is
expected to steadily increase as Karina moves closer to Tropical
Storm Lowell, which should induce steady weakening. By Day 5,
Karina will be moving over 22C SSTs, causing the system to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. The NHC
intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and
closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 15.9N 135.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 12:09:45 UTC