| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm KARINA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during
the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep
convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This
was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud
pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.
Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation
is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of
the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression
12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent
additional strengthening.

Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina
is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern
will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west
for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the
forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,
Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD
12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result
in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little
motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin
to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on
the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is
much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other
hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 16.8N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:40 UTC