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Hurricane JULIO (Text)

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HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

Julio's signature in infrared satellite imagery has improved since
the last advisory.  The hurricane is compact and symmetric, and the
eye has cleared out during the past few hours.  Satellite intensity
estimates have all increased and are now T5.0/90 kt from TAFB,
T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and T5.2/95 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.  A blend
of these data supports increasing the winds to 85 kt on this
advisory.

The forward speed has increased a bit to 290/15 kt.  Julio is
expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few
days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward
trajectory.  Global model fields are now indicating that a break in
the ridge currently to the north of Hawaii may fill in just enough
over the next few days to keep Julio from turning northwestward at
the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly
clustered for the first 48 hours.  After that time, the ECMWF model
is a noticeable outlier compared to the rest of the models, showing
Julio taking a more northern route as it is steered around a more
strongly depicted mid-level high northeast of Hawaii.  The updated
NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies
just to the northeast of the multi-model consensus TVCE after 72
hours.

Julio is essentially straddling the 26C sea surface temperature
isotherm and is expected to move over water between 25-26C during
the next 3 days or so.  Even though water temperatures are
marginal for strengthening, Julio has a few other factors going for
it.  Vertical shear is expected to remain light for another 2 days,
and Julio appears to be embedded within a much larger moisture
envelope than Iselle has had to work with.  In addition, Julio's
fast motion may help to mitigate the negative influence of
upper-ocean mixing of cooler waters.  Therefore, the NHC intensity
forecast allows for the possibility of further strengthening during
the next 12 hours or so and keeps Julio at hurricane strength for
the next 2-3 days.  Only gradual weakening is anticipated at the end
of the forecast period since Julio will be moving over increasingly
warmer waters to the north and west of Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 16.8N 134.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.2N 137.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 18.3N 143.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 19.0N 146.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 21.0N 151.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 25.0N 161.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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