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Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The circulation of Genevieve was briefly devoid of deep convection
earlier this evening, however a recent convective burst near the
center has allowed the depression to maintain its status as a
tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity remains 30 knots based on
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Despite the recent slight increase in
convective activity, Genevieve remains embedded within a strongly
sheared and drying environment and is forecast to become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning.  Several models, most
notably the GFS, HWRF and GFDL, suggest that regeneration is
possible in a couple days after the low moves into the Central
Pacific and into a lower-shear environment.  However given the
hostile current state of the near-storm environment, the official
forecast reflects the UKMET and ECMWF forecast of a shallow remnant
low persisting throughout the next 5 days.

The depression is accelerating westward at 9 knots, and continues to
be steered by low-level easterly flow south of the subtropical
ridge.  The dynamical models unanimously suggest that this general
motion should continue for the next 48-72 hours.  After that, there
is some disagreement whether the system will begin to turn toward
the northwest or remain on a westward heading.  The official
forecast splits these scenarios and lies near the multi-model
consensus.

Genevieve is forecast to be located very near 140W at 0600 UTC.
Forecast advisories on Genevieve will be issued by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center after that longitude threshold is crossed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 12.5N 139.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 12.6N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/0000Z 12.7N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z 13.0N 144.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 14.0N 148.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0000Z 14.5N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

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