Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The circulation of Genevieve was briefly devoid of deep convection
earlier this evening, however a recent convective burst near the
center has allowed the depression to maintain its status as a
tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity remains 30 knots based on
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Despite the recent slight increase in
convective activity, Genevieve remains embedded within a strongly
sheared and drying environment and is forecast to become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning.  Several models, most
notably the GFS, HWRF and GFDL, suggest that regeneration is
possible in a couple days after the low moves into the Central
Pacific and into a lower-shear environment.  However given the
hostile current state of the near-storm environment, the official
forecast reflects the UKMET and ECMWF forecast of a shallow remnant
low persisting throughout the next 5 days.

The depression is accelerating westward at 9 knots, and continues to
be steered by low-level easterly flow south of the subtropical
ridge.  The dynamical models unanimously suggest that this general
motion should continue for the next 48-72 hours.  After that, there
is some disagreement whether the system will begin to turn toward
the northwest or remain on a westward heading.  The official
forecast splits these scenarios and lies near the multi-model
consensus.

Genevieve is forecast to be located very near 140W at 0600 UTC.
Forecast advisories on Genevieve will be issued by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center after that longitude threshold is crossed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 12.5N 139.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 12.6N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/0000Z 12.7N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z 13.0N 144.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 14.0N 148.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0000Z 14.5N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 12:09:37 UTC