Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Strong westerly wind shear has become established over Genevieve
and the low-level center is now completely detached from the
remaining disorganized convection. The initial intensity is kept at
30 knots at this time, but given the current satellite presentation
and the hostile environment expected to prevail, the NHC forecast
calls for additional weakening. Genevieve could become a remnant low
as soon as tonight.  If the low survives a few days, there is a
small chance of regeneration in the Central Pacific where the
upper-level environment could become a little more favorable.

The depression is moving westward at 7 knots, and since it has
become a shallow cyclone, it is now being steered by the low-level
flow south of the subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that
this subtropical ridge will not change much in position or
strength. This pattern should keep the depression or its remnants
moving generally westward for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 12.4N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 12.5N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1800Z 12.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 14.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 14.5N 153.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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