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Tropical Storm FAUSTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

Fausto's cloud pattern has not become better organized over the
past few hours, with little evidence of banding features.  The
center is not easy to locate, even on first-light visible images,
but microwave imagery suggest that it is near the northern edge of
the main area of deep convection.  The current intensity is held at
40 kt, but this may be generous in light of the latest subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates.  The upper-level outflow is
well-defined except over the northwest quadrant of the storm.  The
tropical cyclone should be moving through a light vertical shear and
warm ocean environment for the next couple of days, which would
favor intensification. However, the air mass ahead of Fausto appears
to be drier and more stable, and this would hinder strengthening.
Global models such as the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the system
weakening over the next several days, and this is likely due to the
unfavorable thermodynamic factors. The official intensity forecast
is a little more conservative than the previous ones, and close to
the model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be slightly north of west, or
280/12.  There is little change to the track forecast reasoning.  A
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should result in a
generally west-northwestward track for the next several days.  By
days 3-5, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees
west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to
the right.  At the end of the forecast period, it is expected
that Fausto will be weakening and turning more westward in the
lower-tropospheric steering flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z  9.7N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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