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Tropical Storm ELIDA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

The cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold
cloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This
structure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly
shear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt
based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal
for intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from
the outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level
trough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a
weakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the
official forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a
little restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is
close to the SHIPS model.

It appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours,
with a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The
track model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow
southeastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast
period while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
mid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should
induce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC
forecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally
close to the previous NHC track after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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