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Tropical Storm ELIDA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern
associated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection
displaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to
moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the
rather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at
1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a
well-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern
quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at
45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The
aforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down
considerably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models
have been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed
would occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has
followed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears
to be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge
located across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida
could even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of
Mexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is
forecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce
a westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The
official track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory
track, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected
to affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should
prevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the
very warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment
surrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some
strengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then
follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 17.4N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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