Tropical Depression DOUGLAS
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014
Douglas has once again lost its deep convection, likely now for the
final time. The small patch of showers and thunderstorms dissipated
around 03Z and Dvorak intensity analyses from SAB and TAFB suggest
that Douglas has weakened to a tropical depression. With expected
continued cool water and a stable atmosphere along its track, the
cyclone should become a remnant low shortly.
The depression is moving northwestward at 8 kt. A low to
mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast will continue to
steer Douglas toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly
slower speed for the next two days until dissipation. The track
forecast is again nudged to the north of the previous advisory and
is based upon the multi-model consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 23.1N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Landsea
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