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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Douglas has once again lost its deep convection, likely now for the
final time.  The small patch of showers and thunderstorms dissipated
around 03Z and Dvorak intensity analyses from SAB and TAFB suggest
that Douglas has weakened to a tropical depression. With expected
continued cool water and a stable atmosphere along its track, the
cyclone should become a remnant low shortly.

The depression is moving northwestward at 8 kt.  A low to
mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast will continue to
steer Douglas toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly
slower speed for the next two days until dissipation.  The track
forecast is again nudged to the north of the previous advisory and
is based upon the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 23.1N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 12:09:32 UTC