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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

Douglas's low-level center is located just to the west of a small
area of deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a bit since this morning, and a blend of the Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support
downgrading Douglas to a 30-kt depression.  Continued weakening is
forecast while the depression moves over increasingly cooler
water and into a drier, more stable environment.  Douglas is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours, but it
could become one earlier if the deep convection diminishes soon.
Dissipation is still expected by day 5.

Douglas continues to creep northwestward with an initial motion of
315/2 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build over the
western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause
the remnant low to turn west-northwestward and accelerate by days 3
and 4. The model guidance is in good agreement, and no significant
changes were required to the official NHC track forecast in this
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 20.6N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Nov-2014 12:09:42 UTC