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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

Douglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep
convection.  Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the
tropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a
tropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and
possibly an ASCAT pass later today.  Regardless, cold water and dry,
stable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression
soon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours.
Dissipation is forecast by day 5.

The initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt.  A mid-level high
centered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from
making much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift
westward during the next 48 hours.  At the same time, mid-level
ridging will build over the western United States.  Douglas is
therefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after
36 hours.  The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the
right a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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