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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

After an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle,
thunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few
hours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum
period. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate
that Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation,
including a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is
being maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite
estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Douglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Douglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more
shallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or
west by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific
subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically
just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but
just south of the consensus model TVCE.

Douglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the
cyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over
sub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become
a depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate
further into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is
consistent with most of the available intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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