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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Tropical Storm Douglas has developed some well-defined inner
core banding features this evening, as seen in the GOES-West
geostationary imagery.  Correspondingly, the intensity estimates
have inched upward:  a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications averages 40 kt, the Advanced Dvorak Technique is at
43 kt, and the CIMSS AMSU technique suggests 48 kt.  The initial
intensity is thus set at 40 kt, but this could be slightly low.

It appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as the
sea surface temperatures and convective instability start dropping
steadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear.  The
intensity guidance is tightly clustered and suggests gradual
weakening after 24 h until loss of deep convection in about 3-4
days causes the system to become a remnant low.  The intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous advisory, mainly due to the
short-term intensity trend.

Douglas is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  The system is
primarily being steered by a broad ridge to its north, which should
weaken within the next day or so as a short-wave trough approaches
from the west.  When this occurs, the steering flow becomes almost
negligible and Douglas is likely to drift slowly west-northwestward
between 24 and 72 h.  By days 4 and 5, the remnant low of Douglas
will accelerate westward in the low-level tradewind flow.  The
track forecast is based upon TVCE - the variable consensus model -
and is slightly north of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 18.4N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 19.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 19.4N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.7N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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