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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Douglas is holding its own.  The main deep convection associated
with the storm is located in a long band wrapping around the
southern semicircle of the circulation.  However, cloud top
temperatures in that band have been slowly warming.  A 1700 UTC
ASCAT pass winds showed around 30 kt winds, primarily in an area
about 100 n mi southeast of the center. Dvorak intensity are 2.5
from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC.  Based on these classifications
and the assumption that there could be somewhat higher winds not
captured in the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is held at 35 for
this advisory.  Time has run out for Douglas to intensify further.
Even though there is virtually no shear, the system is already
ingesting drier and more stable air mass as it moves over
increasingly cooler waters.  The NHC intensity forecast is a bit
lower than the previous one and shows remnant low status in 4 days,
though this potentially could occur sooner.

The initial motion is 305/09.  Douglas is moving into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge to its north, which should result in a
continued northwestward motion but at considerably slower forward
speed.  Once the cyclone decouples and become a shallow vortex, a
turn toward the west is expected prior to dissipation. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted only slightly to the north, closer to the
multi-model consensus as well as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 17.7N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 18.3N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 19.3N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 19.6N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 19.6N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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