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Tropical Depression CRISTINA (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Cristina continues to lack any deep convection, which is not
surprising given the hostile envirionment of strong shear, cool
waters and dry air. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina will likely
be declared a remnant low later today, and global model fields
show the low dissipating around 72 hours.

The initial motion has turned back toward the west-northwest at 5
kt. Cristina is expected to gradually turn poleward into a weakness
in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. The NHC track is
a little to the right of the previous one, following the latest
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 20.1N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Nov-2014 12:09:31 UTC