Tropical Depression CRISTINA
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Cristina continues to lack any deep convection, which is not
surprising given the hostile envirionment of strong shear, cool
waters and dry air. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina will likely
be declared a remnant low later today, and global model fields
show the low dissipating around 72 hours.
The initial motion has turned back toward the west-northwest at 5
kt. Cristina is expected to gradually turn poleward into a weakness
in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. The NHC track is
a little to the right of the previous one, following the latest
multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 20.1N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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