ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 Deep convection associated with Cristina has dissipated during the last several hours, with the circulation now just a swirl of low clouds. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased considerably, and, as a result, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of CI- and Final-T numbers. A continued rapid spin down of the vortex is forecast by all of the intensity guidance, and Cristina should weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours. Global models then show the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Cristina to become post-tropical in 24 hours, though this could occur sooner. Now that Cristina is a shallow cyclone, its movement has become more westerly as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A longer-term average of center fixes, however, gives an initial motion estimate of 295/05. As the ridge to the north weakens during the next day or so, Cristina is expected to resume a west- northwestward or northwestward motion at a slow forward speed until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one but adjusted slightly to the left during the first 24 hours as a result of the more westward initial motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.8N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 21.2N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 21.8N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 23.0N 117.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:28 UTC