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Tropical Storm CRISTINA (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Deep convection associated with Cristina has dissipated during
the last several hours, with the circulation now just a swirl of low
clouds.  Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased considerably,
and, as a result, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based
on a blend of CI- and Final-T numbers.  A continued rapid spin down
of the vortex is forecast by all of the intensity guidance, and
Cristina should weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours.  Global
models then show the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in
a few days.  The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Cristina to
become post-tropical in 24 hours, though this could occur sooner.

Now that Cristina is a shallow cyclone, its movement has become more
westerly as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.
A longer-term average of center fixes, however, gives an initial
motion estimate of 295/05.  As the ridge to the north weakens during
the next day or so, Cristina is expected to resume a west-
northwestward or northwestward motion at a slow forward speed until
dissipation. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
but adjusted slightly to the left during the first 24 hours as a
result of the more westward initial motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 19.8N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 20.0N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 20.6N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 21.2N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 21.8N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 23.0N 117.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Sep-2014 12:09:23 UTC