Hurricane CRISTINA

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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

A 1657 UTC AMSU pass suggests that Cristina's eyewall replacement
is probably almost complete, and coincidentally, visible satellite
images show a ragged eye trying to re-form.  The convective pattern
is somewhat lopsided, however, and objective ADT estimates have
continued to slowly decrease.  Based on the latest Dvorak estimates,
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt.

Now that the eyewall replacement appears complete, it is not out of
the question that Cristina could re-intensify a bit or at least
maintain its intensity in the short term while environmental
conditions remain relatively favorable.  From this point forward,
however, vertical shear will be gradually increasing and sea surface
temperatures will be decreasing.  Therefore, the gradual weakening
trend currently in progress is expected to continue during the next
three days, with Cristina likely to become a remnant low by day 4.
The NHC intensity forecast is between the intensity consensus and
the Florida State Superensemble, which dissipates Cristina by day 3.

Cristina is still moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The cyclone
is expected to begin slowing down in about 24 hours when the mid-
level ridge to its north weakens.  Low- to mid-level ridging will
then steer Cristina west-northwestward through the remainder of the
forecast period.  The guidance is in fairly good agreement on
Cristina's future track, and no significant changes to the NHC
forecast were required on this advisory cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 18.5N 110.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 19.6N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 19.9N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 20.3N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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