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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)

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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around
1200 UTC.  Deep convection has become less symmetric since that
time, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible
images.  The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this
advisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates
from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT.

Although a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of
west-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that
internal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also
modulating the intensity.  Only gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to
remain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm.  After 48 hours,
environmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening
is anticipated after that time.  Given the hurricane's current
structure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing
weakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast
therefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours.

The initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the
south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  The track models
are tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing
Cristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion
through the next 48 hours.  After that time, the weakening cyclone
will be steered to the west by lower-level flow.  The updated NHC
track forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast
during the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the
guidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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