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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)

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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

An intermittent eye feature has been noted in both conventional and
microwave satellite imagery today, and Dvorak intensity estimates
have steadily increased as a result. However, a 1653 UTC AMSU pass
indicated that the 15-20 nmi diameter eyewall was open to the east
and that it was completely detached from any convective bands,
suggesting that the hurricane is probably not quite as strong as the
T4.5 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are indicating.
Therefore, the initial intensity estimate is set to 70 kt.

Cristina is now moving at a fairly steady motion of 280/05 kt. The
model guidance remains consistent on the hurricane moving westward
through tonight, followed by a west-northwestward motion beginning
on Thursday and continuing through 72 hours. After that, a
weakening Cristina is forecast to turn more westward as the cyclone
gradually becomes more vertically shallow as it encounters
unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and gets steered
by the low-level easterly flow on the south side of broad ridge of
high pressure. Although the new model tracks still diverge
significantly at Days 4 and 5, the GFS and GFS-Ensemble models have
nudged their tracks a little farther west and closer to the
previous NHC forecast. As a result, the official forecast track is
similar to the previous one, and remains a little to the left of the
consensus model TCVE due to the right-bias of the GFDL-member.

Intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air should continue to
interrupt the development of persistent eyewall convection for the
next 36 hours or so. However, given that Cristina will still be over
near 29C SSTs and in an extremely low shear environment, those
conditions should allow for at least gradual strengthening during
that time. Around 72 hours or so, environmental and oceanic
conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, which
should combine to produce steady weakening, especially by 96 hours
and beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 15.6N 105.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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