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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)


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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

After an overnight period of strengthening, conventional and
microwave satellite imagery suggest that Cristina's intensity has
leveled off. Recent SSMI/S and TRMM overpasses indicated a low-
level eye feature, but the mid-level eye is no longer evident. The
cyclone again appears to have ingested dry mid-level air, which has
eroded the convection in the western semicircle. The initial
intensity of 65 kt is based on consensus Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.

After a brief jog to the west-southwest, Cristina appears to have
resumed a westerly motion of 275/05 kt. Other than to make just a
tad right-of-track adjustment due to the initial position, the NHC
official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory
track. Cristina is expected to move westward today, followed by a
west-northwestward motion around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge in the 24- to 72-hour period, a scenario which
most of the reliable models strongly agree on. After that, however,
the models diverge significantly with the GFS, GFS Ensemble, NAVGEM,
HWRF, and GFDL models taking a stronger Cristina more northward,
whereas the ECMWF and UKMET weaken the cyclone fairly quickly and
move it more westward. Given that the official intensity forecast is
calling for a weaker and smaller tropical cyclone by 96 and 120
hours, the official forecast at those times is roughly an average of
the ECMWF and GFS models, which shows a weaker and more vertically
shallow cyclone moving west-northward to westward.

Cristina has consistently been intensifying at night during the
convective maximum period, which seems likely to continue for
another 24-48 hours. However, the cyclone will still be battling
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air for the remainder of the
forecast period, especially after 72 hours, so only gradual
intensification is expected. After day 3, increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear and SSTs cooler than 26C are expected to induce
steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity
model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 15.4N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 15.7N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 16.2N 107.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 16.9N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 19.0N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 19.5N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 19.9N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 12:09:33 UTC