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Tropical Storm CRISTINA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Although inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased at times
since the previous advisory, it has been unable to persist as a
central dense overcast feature due to entrainment of dry mid-level
air. The result is that Cristina looks much better in visible
imagery than it does in IR data, and this is mainly due to the cloud
pattern being comprised of mostly dissipating cirrus clouds. Having
said that, microwave and conventional satellite imagery have been
hinting at the formation of a 30 nmi diameter eye-like feature
during the past several hours, but the cyclone has thus far been
unable to sustain that development trend owing to the aforementioned
dry air intrusions. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a
blend of satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB
and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/04 kt. Cristina is expected
to continue moving generally westward and accompanied by a gradual
increase in forward speed as the cyclone comes under increasing
influence from a strengthening subtropical ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico to west of Baja California. By 48
hours, Cristina is forecast to turn west-northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, and that motion is expected to
continue through Day 5. The NHC track forecast is just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies south and west of the
consensus model TVCE due to the GFDL model having a sharp
right-of-track bias from the outset of the forecast.

Upper-level shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt during
the next 72 hours while Cristina remains over SSTs warmer than 28C.
This should allow the cyclone to at least gradually strengthen for
the next 24 hours or so despite the occasional dry air intrusions
that will disrupt the inner core convection and the intensification
process. However, if Cristina can somehow manage to close off an
eye despite the relatively dry mid-level environment, then rapid
strengthening during the next 24 hours or so would likely occur in
such a low vertical wind shear regime. By 96 hours and beyond, the
combination of much cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier and more
stable air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear should produce
gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity
models IVCN and ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 15.5N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Nov-2014 12:09:36 UTC