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Tropical Storm CRISTINA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

Although the intensity of the deep convection has not changed
significantly during the last several hours, the cyclone has better
defined features with thunderstorms consolidating near the center
and fragmented bands to the east and west of the center.  The
initial intensity estimate is 35 kt, based on a Dvorak
classification from TAFB, making the cyclone Tropical Storm
Cristina.

Cristina has a few days to gain additional strength while the
environmental factors remain generally favorable, and the models are
in fairly good agreement in showing Cristina being at or near
hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours.  Beyond a few days, the system
is expected to move into a drier airmass with stronger southwesterly
shear, and over marginal sea surface temperatures.  These conditions
should end the strengthening phase, and ultimately cause Cristina to
weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity
consensus model IVCN for the first 3 days of the forecast period,
and then lies lower than consensus closer to the LGEM guidance at
days 4 and 5 when environmental conditions are expected to become
more hostile.

The storm had been drifting northwestward most of the day, but the
latest satellite images suggest that Cristina is likely now
moving slowly westward.  This westward turn is in response to a
building mid-level ridge to the northwest of the storm, and that
feature should keep Cristina on a westward to west-northwestward
path away from the coast of Mexico during the next several days.
The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one in the short
term, and then is nudged northward trending toward the latest
guidance.

Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the
Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or
warnings along the coast of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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