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Tropical Storm BORIS (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

Although the satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has
degraded during the past few hours, a couple of ASCAT passes
at 1524 and 1618 UTC detected winds of 34 to 37 kt over the
northeastern portion of the circulation.  Based on the ASCAT
data, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm on the 1800 UTC
Intermediate Public Advisory.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt,
however, additional strengthening is not anticipated since a large
portion of the circulation is already interacting with land.  Boris
should steadily weaken after landfall, and the low-level
circulation is expected to dissipate over the mountains of southern
Mexico in a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate remains northward at about 4 kt.  Boris
should continue moving slowly northward around the eastern side of
a mid- to upper-level trough over Mexico.  The model guidance is in
somewhat better agreement on taking the system inland over southern
Mexico within the next 24 to 48 hours.  The updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the TVCE
model consensus.

The primary threat from Boris continues to be very heavy rainfall
and the resultant flooding over southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.  Rainfall totals could approach 30 inches (750 mm)
in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, which will likely cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous
terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 14.9N  94.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 15.4N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 16.0N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 16.5N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 17.0N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 12:09:32 UTC