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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

Satellite images indicate that the depression has not become any
better organized during the past several hours. The cloud
pattern has become elongated and is possible that the
low-level center is on the southern edge of the convection due to
wind shear. This is supported by a 0600 UTC TRMM pass which
shows what appears to be a center located south of the
thunderstorm activity. Dvorak intensity estimates from both
TAFB and SAB suggest that winds remain at 30 knots. There is still
an opportunity for the depression to reach tropical storm status
later today before the circulation becomes even more involved with
land. A large portion of the convection is already over Mexico as we
speak. This convection is probably associated with a mid-level
circulation which is becoming detached from the low-level center.

Although the low-level center is difficult to locate, the best
estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 350 degrees
at 5 knots. There has been a significant change in the models
in the last run, and now there is more agreement among them. The
ECMWF which in previous runs kept the cyclone meandering south of
Mexico is now in tune with the GFS and the HWRF.  These three
reliable models are moving the cyclone northward over Mexico a
little bit faster. On this basis, the official forecast has been
adjusted to reflect this change in the models, but the confidence is
low. This solution is very close to the multimodel consensus.

If the circulation moves inland, as anticipated, weakening over the
high terrain is expected. However, the main threat of very heavy
rains will continue, particularly near regions of high terrain.
This should result in significant and dangerous flooding and mud
slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.4N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 15.2N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 16.2N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 17.0N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0600Z 17.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 18.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Oct-2014 12:09:24 UTC