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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become slightly better
organized, with a more prominent banding feature over the eastern
semicircle of the circulation, and water vapor imagery shows an
upper-level outflow anticyclone becoming established over the
depression.  Based on ship reports and a Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.  The tropical
cyclone should remain in a low-shear environment, and the main
impediments to strengthening appear to be the lack of a well-defined
inner core and the proximity to land.  The official intensity
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and the previous
official forecast.

Although the center is not easy to locate, geostationary and
microwave satellite data suggest that is a little farther north than
the previous estimates.  The initial motion estimate is a rather
uncertain 330 degrees at 4 kt.  Steering currents are not very
well-defined, but the cyclone is expected to move generally
northward in the flow on the western side of a mid-level ridge
extending from the Caribbean Sea westward into Central America.
The latest GFS deterministic and ensemble mean, and the HWRF model
predictions are now in fairly good agreement that the center will be
close to the coast in about 36 hours.  The earlier ECMWF model run
kept the cyclone well offshore through the forecast period.  The
ECMWF usually provides excellent guidance, but given the good
agreement among the NCEP models it is felt that the most prudent
course of action is to lean toward the latter models.  Therefore,
the official forecast brings the tropical cyclone to the coast
somewhat sooner than the previous NHC track.  This requires changing
the tropical storm watch to a warning for the coast of Mexico.

Although some strengthening of the cyclone is anticipated during
the next day or so, the main threat from this system is likely to
come from very heavy rains, particularly near regions of high
terrain.  This should result in significant and dangerous flooding
and mud slides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 13.8N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.3N  94.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 14.9N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 15.4N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 15.8N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 16.1N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 16.2N  94.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0000Z 16.5N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 12:09:20 UTC