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Tropical Depression AMANDA (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014

The satellite presentation of Amanda has been deteriorating during
the last several hours.  The remaining deep convection is confined
to a band that is about 150 n mi from the center, and even that
feature lacks curvature.  Dvorak classifications continue to
decrease, and on that basis, Amanda is downgraded to a tropical
depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Continued weakening
is forecast, and Amanda will likely become a remnant low in about a
day or sooner.  Dissipation is predicted to occur in about 4 days,
following the GFS and ECMWF models.

The low-level center of Amanda had been difficult to find
overnight, but recent microwave and visible images indicate that it
is located to the south of the previous estimate.  In addition, the
center itself has become increasingly elongated and diffuse.  The
depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move eastward or
east-northeastward at a decreasing pace for the next 24 to 36 hours.
Beyond that time, whatever is left of Amanda should turn
southwestward when it is steered by a building low- to mid-level
ridge to its north.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
southward mainly to account for the adjusted initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 16.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.5N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 16.6N 108.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0000Z 16.6N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z 16.7N 108.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1200Z 16.1N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Oct-2014 12:09:26 UTC