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Tropical Storm AMANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014

The cloud tops of Amanda have been warming during the past few
hours with almost no deep convection near the center.  Although a
well-defined mid-level center is apparent on the latest satellite
imagery, this feature is well to the northeast of the low-level
circulation as indicated by ASCAT data and a recent SSMI/S pass.
Based on the current satellite trends, the initial intensity is
lowered to 40 kt, a bit below the recent Dvorak estimates.

The microwave data show that Amanda is moving to the northeast at a
little slower pace of about 5 kt.  This motion should continue on
Thursday ahead of a mid-level trough.  This trough is expected to
moving away from Amanda by Friday, which would leave the storm in
light steering currents.  After that time, the weakened storm will
probably turn to the west and west-southwest as a low- to mid-level
ridge builds over the eastern Pacific.  There have not been any
significant changes to the guidance, and the latest NHC forecast is
very close to the previous one.

Amanda should continue to weaken for the next couple of days due to
moderate shear, dry air aloft and marginal SSTs.  While the shear is
forecast to weaken some in a day or so, the storm will likely have
entrained a significant amount of dry air by then, and it probably
won't be able to take advantage of the decreased shear.  The cyclone
should become a remnant low in a couple of days due to these
marginal environment conditions. Most of the guidance shows steady
weakening and the official NHC prediction follows suit, at or below
the intensity consensus throughout the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 16.3N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 17.2N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 17.6N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 12:09:14 UTC