ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 Amanda continues to gradually lose strength. Deep convection has decreased in coverage during the last several hours, and the cloud tops are not as cold as they were this morning. Dvorak Final T-numbers were 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass at 1642 UTC showed maximum reliable winds in the 45-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt. The low-level center of Amanda, which appeared somewhat elongated in the scatterometer pass, remains near the southern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 to 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear. Slow weakening is expected to remain the theme during the next few days due to the combination of shear, dry air, and cooler water along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and in line with most of the guidance. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimate being 035/7. A mid- to upper-level trough to the west of Amanda is expected to keep the cyclone moving northeastward or north-northeastward during the next day or two. After that time, the weakening system is expected to reverse its course and turn southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to its north. Only slight changes were made to the previous official track forecast and it lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.8N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.3N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.9N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 16.7N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:25 UTC