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Tropical Storm AMANDA (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014

Amanda continues to gradually lose strength.  Deep convection has
decreased in coverage during the last several hours, and the
cloud tops are not as cold as they were this morning.  Dvorak
Final T-numbers were 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB,
respectively.  In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass at 1642 UTC showed
maximum reliable winds in the 45-50 kt range.  Based on these data,
the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt.

The low-level center of Amanda, which appeared somewhat elongated
in the scatterometer pass, remains near the southern edge of the
main area of thunderstorms.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 15 to 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear.  Slow weakening is
expected to remain the theme during the next few days due to the
combination of shear, dry air, and cooler water along the forecast
track.  The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
one and in line with most of the guidance.

The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast, with the
latest initial motion estimate being 035/7.  A mid- to upper-level
trough to the west of Amanda is expected to keep the cyclone moving
northeastward or north-northeastward during the next day or two.
After that time, the weakening system is expected to reverse its
course and turn southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds
to its north.  Only slight changes were made to the previous
official track forecast and it lies fairly close to the multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 15.8N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 16.3N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 16.9N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 16.7N 110.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Dec-2014 12:09:31 UTC