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Tropical Storm AMANDA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014

Although Amanda is producing a considerable amount of deep
convection, with cloud tops as cold as -85 C, the cloud pattern
lacks organization.  Microwave images show that the
low-level center is located near the southern edge of the
convective area, indicative of the continued influence of
southerly shear.  The latest Dvorak classifications have decreased
slightly, and support lowering the initial wind speed to 55 kt.

Vertical cross sections from the GFS model show a pronounced south
to north tilt of the vortex due to the shear.  Since the
environmental winds are not expected to change much during the next
24 hours, additional weakening is anticipated.  Even though the
shear is forecast to lessen on Thursday, Amanda is expected to
continue to lose strength due to dry air entrainment and lower sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track.  The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend in the guidance and calls for Amanda to
become a remnant low in a few days.

The tropical storm is moving slowly northeastward in the flow
between a trough to its west and a ridge to its east over Mexico.
This continued motion, with some increase in forward speed, is
expected during the next day or two.  After that time, however,
Amanda is forecast to reverse its course and move slowly
southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of
the weakening system.  The NHC track forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus, and not too far from the previous
official track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 15.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 15.5N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 16.3N 110.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 17.1N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 17.5N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 17.0N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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