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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)

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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

Amanda's cloud pattern has deteriorated in organization today.
Although the cyclone is producing some very intense convection, the
thunderstorms are not particularly well organized, and there is
little evidence of banding features.  The current intensity
estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak
estimate from NESDIS SAB - however, this may be generous.  The
weakening of the hurricane may be partially due to its slow
movement, and the resultant upwelling of cooler ocean waters.
Although the vertical shear is predicted to diminish over the next
day or two, drier air and lower sea surface temperatures are
likely to induce continued weakening.  The official wind speed
forecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS and intensity
model consensus guidance.

The hurricane continues to plod north-northwestward at 4
kt between a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast and a weak
trough to its northwest.  Steering currents are forecast to remain
weak for the next several days, but most of the track models show
the tropical cyclone turning northward and then northeastward over
the next couple of days into a slight weakness in the ridge over
northwestern Mexico.  Late in the forecast period, a northeast-
southwest oriented ridge extending across the Baja California
peninsula should cause Amanda to turn southwestward. The official
track forecast is only slightly west of the previous one and close
to the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 15.0N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 112.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 17.3N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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