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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)


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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank.  The hurricane
appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but
its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past
several hours.  An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded
by convective tops as cold as -85C.  The shear is still affecting
the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to
north.  Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt
from TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective
ADT.  The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on
a conservative blend of these data.

The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant
change to the official intensity forecast.  Weakening is expected
to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which
should persist for another 24 hours or so.  After that time,
however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest
of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which
could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level
environment for a few days.  Due to the higher initial intensity and
the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity
forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may
not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period.
Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end
of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU
Superensemble.  The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest
of the intensity models end up being correct.

Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt...
between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level
trough near 20N128W.  As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is
forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn
northeastward by 48 hours.  Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak
low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to
stall or meander by days 4 and 5.  Although there is still a
significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of
the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying
on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.  The NHC track has
also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 12:09:28 UTC