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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)


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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

After significant erosion of the deep convection in the southern
portion of the eyewall, a resurgence of convective development has
occurred in the past couple of hours, including the redevelopment
of the CDO feature and a cloud-filled eye. However, an average of
all available satellite intensity estimates indicates that Amanda
has still weakened and is now a 105-kt category 3 hurricane.

A 12-hour average motion of 335/04 kt was used for the advisory
motion, in spite of the many wobbles in the track during the past
few hours. Although the model guidance isn't quite the proverbial
squashed spider pattern that typically suggests a slow and erratic
motion, it isn't far from it. Amanda is expected to move slowly
northward into a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone during the next few days, during which time
the steering currents are forecast to collapse. While the steering
currents erode, Amanda is also forecast to become a significantly
weaker and more shallow cyclone during that time, resulting in the
cyclone meandering south of Socorro Island as a remnant low by Day
5, if not sooner. The official forecast track remains close to a
blend of the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.

Deep-layer shear of more than 20 kt is expected to continue to
affect Amanda for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in steady to
rapid weakening during the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains close to
the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 13.4N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Monday, 01-Sep-2014 12:09:15 UTC